Over the past few years, there has been growing awareness within government, industry and the community that new technology and business models will transform Australia’s transport system. Examples include new business models, such as ride sharing and car sharing apps like Uber or GoGet, and potential future technology such as fully automated and connected vehicles. These changes urge us to consider today how we could or should regulate transport in the future. In response to emerging changes, governments are preparing to change the regulatory environment. The National Transport Commission (NTC) has been examining regulatory barriers to automated road and rail vehicles over the past 12 months. State governments have also been actively supporting the introduction of automated vehicles; for example, South Australia has introduced exemptions powers to allow trials of automated vehicles. National work is also underway to better understand developments such as cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS). The Transport and Infrastructure Council, as part of its 2015 review of the NTC, directed the NTC to continue to transition its focus to higher level strategic policy reform work. In response, the NTC has included a strategic analysis stream in its work program. The aim of this strategic work is to understand the trends, influences and changes in society that will shape Australia’s transport system in the future. Decisions we make regarding infrastructure investment, funding mechanisms and regulatory frameworks often reflect our current operating environment. However, the decisions we make today need to also incorporate our understanding of the future and acknowledge that we do not know what is likely to occur. Our decisions are often based on our history of experience, but more and more we are being required to make decisions on what may yet emerge. Better decisions made now will lead to improved productivity, safety and environmental performance of Australia’s transport system in the future. In this work, we will ask key strategic questions. The aim of the work is not to provide definitive long-term solutions. Instead, the aim is to discuss and explore plausible futures so we can prepare for the unknown changes and challenges that are ahead for Australia’s transport system and be better prepared to respond to new and emerging opportunities. The first strategic stream of work is called Land Transport Regulation 2040. The strategic question for this work is: How could or should we regulate land transport in the future? We hope that this work will stimulate discussions about how we might need to change the way we regulate in response to the changes in the transport system to ensure our regulations encourage, not hinder, innovation. This paper briefly explores some of the technologies and other key factors that could have a significant impact on land transport in the future. Section 2 discusses four key factors of change that were used in various combinations in developing the future transport scenarios: • automation • shared mobility • data availability • consumer demand for convenience and new services. Section 2 also discusses some other factors of change and the how factors of change may combine in ways that produce significant changes. Section 3 contains topics for discussion that have been raised in the workshops to date. These topics are: • market structures • compliance and enforcement approaches • productivity of networks • future information standards and privacy implications • future transport demand. This paper will be used in meetings, workshops and conversations we will have with stakeholders throughout October to early December 2016. These discussions will be used to help shape the final report and advice we provide to the Transport and Infrastructure Council in May 2017. This advice will include potential research and policy projects to inform future regulatory decisions. (Author/publisher)
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