The lute model of travel by car, bus and on foot has been used to predict travel in a set of hypothetical towns with a wide range of sizes, shapes and population densities, subject to the average time spent travelling per day and the number of trips being held constant, the fares revenue covering a specified proportion of the operating cost, and allowing for the finite seating capacity of the buses. The results are intended to be of interest to bus operators concerned about future levels of service, fares, patronage and profitability as car ownership increases and residential densities decline, to transport planners interested in the behaviour of the transport system as a whole, and to planners who wish to assess the travel and accessibility consequences of alternative development patterns. The predictions are in good agreement with what is observed: bus competes with walking, but if a car is available when a trip is made bus is rarely used. Above the critical population density at which fares revenue first becomes sufficient to cover operating costs, the operator has a wide choice of fares and frequencies, and if these are chosen so as to maximise patronage then the elasticity of demand with respect to service headway should be equal to or smaller than that with respect to fares. Use per car varies little with land-use pattern or bus service levels, although car ownership is lower where incomes are lower, or where congestion and parking difficulties or good access by public transport or on foot make car ownership less worthwhile. Walking remains an important mode in all areas, both in its own right and as an indispensible component of bus and car travel. Neither public transport subsidies nor higher densities seem to be effective ways of reducing car ownership or use. The suggestion that travel can be reduced by moving homes and jobs closer together is not supported by the modelling. (Author/publisher)
Abstract