A new modelling tool for integrated analysis of the long term interaction between the transport system and the land-use pattern is presented. The location pattern, of households and businesses, is important when dealing with long-term decisions like investment in transport infrastructure. In the short term the land-use pattern may be considered fixed, and the transportation flows as derived from that pattern. But in the longer term, it is likely that the land-use will change in response to changes in accessibility to various amenities. Achieving a long-term sustainable transport sector will inevitably require combining many policy instruments into coherent strategies. But, doing so will place new demands on the decision support tools available to planners and decision makers. The tool presented in this paper enhances the traditional analysis of infrastructure measures by taking the long term location effects into account. Additionally, it enables the study of combinations of infrastructure and land-use measures. The model structure and parameter estimation are outlined. The paper closes by pointing to some future policy oriented uses for the modelling tool (A). For the covering abstract of the conference see ITRD E212343.
Abstract