This paper argues that the influence of a number of important risk factors on road accidents can be modelled statistically in terms of a few scientific laws, which represent more or less invariant causal relationships. It is postulated that if humans were perfectly rational, and always in perfect control of hazards that are subject to human control, there would be very few serious accidents. It is proposed that both external and internal factors limit the exercise of human rationality in the control of hazards, resulting in errors that are associated with accidents. Instances of all these laws, as well as guidelines as to how the laws can be tested empirically, are given. It is hoped that proposing a few basic mechanisms describing the impact of risk factors will serve as a building block for a more general theory of accident causation. For the covering abstract see ITRD E137489.
Abstract