In 2015, large trucks (trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 10,000 pounds) were involved in 414,958 crashes that resulted in 116,000 injuries and 4,067 fatalities (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, 2016). The AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety identified the potential of several large-truck advanced safety technologies as promising countermeasures to reduce these crashes. Advanced safety technologies may use sensors or alerts to warn a driver of a possible collision, actively assume control of a vehicle in situations where a driver does not react to the threat of an imminent crash, or improve driver and fleet management (e.g., monitoring vehicle safety systems and drivers’ hours-of-service status). Although some advanced safety technologies may be effective at preventing crashes, it is also important to know whether they are cost-effective, as this information may assist consumers in purchasing advanced safety technologies and/or government regulators in mandating their use. The objective of this research was to provide scientifically-based estimates of the societal benefits and costs of advanced safety technologies in large trucks (i.e., the impacts a technology may have across the entire society if implemented) in order to (1) allow the Department of Transportation to make informed decisions related to potential regulations on advanced safety technologies, and (2) promote the adoption of cost-effective advanced safety technologies to motor carriers. To accomplish this objective, an in-depth literature synthesis of 14 advanced safety technologies was completed, an expert advisory panel informed cost and benefit estimations (based on the literature review and their experience and knowledge), and benefit-cost analyses were performed on selected advanced safety technologies. The advisory panel recommended the following four technologies for benefit-cost analyses: lane departure warning systems, automatic emergency braking systems, air disc brakes, and video-based onboard safety monitoring systems. This report presents the results related to lane departure warning systems. See other AAA Foundation reports for analyses of automatic emergency braking systems, air disc brakes, and onboard safety monitoring systems. Lane departure warning systems are vision-based, in-vehicle electronic systems that monitor the vehicle’s position within a roadway. Based on lane line markings, the system warns a driver if the vehicle deviates or is about to unintentionally deviate outside the lane line. Lane departure warning systems are capable of providing direction-specific audible or haptic warnings depending on which way the vehicle is drifting. For example, an audible warning that sounds like rumble strips can be used for right side lane crossing. These warnings may also come from only the left-side (or right-side) speakers, depending on the direction of the lateral drift. It is important to note that if a turn signal is activated, the system will not issue an alert. The literature review identified 13 studies that estimated the efficacy of large truck lane departure warning systems in reducing crashes. These studies found the efficacy of lane departure warning systems in preventing large-truck single-vehicle roadway departure, sideswipe, opposite sideswipe, and head-on crashes ranged from 13% to 53%. This wide range of efficacy was the result of variations in performance capabilities between different generations of systems, or not all relevant crash types were investigated in each study. Additionally, five documents provided costs associated with lane departure warning systems, identifying the costs of these systems as ranging from $301 to $2,000 per vehicle. An Expert Advisory Panel convened May 17, 2016, at the AAAFTS headquarters in Washington, D.C. This advisory panel consisted of six individuals representing various aspects of the industry, including representatives from a commercial motor vehicle carrier, a trucking insurance company, the Federal Motor Carrier Association (FMCSA), the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and an advanced safety technology vendor. The panel also included an industry safety consultant. The purpose of this meeting was twofold: (1) to assist the research team in selecting technologies that require a benefit-cost analysis, and (2) to identify the appropriate efficacy rates and costs to be used in the benefit-cost analysis. Following this discussion, a benefit-cost analysis was recommended for lane departure warning systems, and upper- and lower-bound efficacy rates and costs were selected for lane departure warning systems. For lane departure warning systems, the advisory panel recommended efficacy rates of 30% and 47.8% to reflect current performance capabilities of systems (instead of systems that were under development). This recommendation was based on current carrier conservative efficacy estimates, Pomerleau et al. (1999), and Hickman et al. (2013). Additionally, the panel recommended a cost of $1,000 per truck based on carrier feedback and information gathered from Orban et al. (2006), Houser et al. (2009), NorthAmerican Transportation Association (NTA; n.d.), and Hickman et al. (2013). The benefit-cost analysis followed conventional methods used in similar studies (e.g., Hickman et al., 2013) to estimate the societal benefits and costs of implementing lane departure warning systems in the trucking industry. Societal benefits of lane departure warning systems associated with a reduction in crashes were compared to the costs of deploying the systems across the entire U.S. fleet of large trucks. The benefit and cost factors considered in this study are discussed below. Benefit Factors: • Medical-related costs; • Emergency response service costs; • Property damage; • Lost productivity; • Monetized value of pain, and the suffering and quality-of-life decrements experienced by families in a death or injury. Cost Factors: • LDW system hardware purchase, installation, and financing costs; • LDW system maintenance costs; • LDW system replacement costs; • Costs associated with LDW system training for drivers and managers. To assess the impact lane departure warning systems could have on reducing crash rates (and the costs associated with the systems), national crash databases were used to identify the systems’ target crash population. These crash databases included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES). The FARS database was used to determine the number of fatal crashes and their associated fatalities and injuries, and the GES database was used as an estimation for injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes. The GES database also was used to estimate the number of injuries as a result of injury crashes. Queries were developed for relevant crash types and information was extracted for different vehicle types for a period of six years (2010 to 2015). When filtering the GES and FARS crashes, the research team carefully considered the scenarios where lane departure warning systems may have prevented the crash. Specifically, only large-truck single-vehicle roadway departures and sideswipes, opposite direction sideswipes, and head-on crashes where the large truck struck another vehicle were selected as crashes potentially preventable by lane departure warning systems. Additionally, the research team used the following GES/FARS variables to further limit crashes that may have been prevented by LDW systems: pre-event movement, critical event, and first harmful event. Finally, all crashes that involved the use of alcohol or drugs by the large-truck driver were eliminated. The complete list of GES/FARS variables used may be found in Appendix B. Two sets of benefit-cost analyses were performed for lane departure warning systems. The first set of analyses included retrofitting the entire U.S. fleet of large trucks. This approach assumed all new vehicles added to the fleet would be equipped with lane departure warning systems and old vehicles would be retrofitted. This analysis approach represented the scenario with the most benefits but also the highest costs. The second set of analyses used an annual incremental costs analysis approach. This approach assumed all new vehicles would be equipped with lane departure warning systems (starting in 2018) and did not include retrofitting old vehicles. Societal benefits were assessed over the life of the vehicle. Additionally, for each analysis approach, an analysis was performed on different types of large trucks. The first analysis included all class 7 and 8 trucks (Gross Vehicle Weight Rating greater than 26,000 pounds). The second analysis was performed only using class 7 and 8 combination unit trucks. The third analysis was performed only using class 7 and 8 single unit trucks. Finally, separate analyses were performed to account for the rate of monetary discount, in the present value, of the cost and benefits in any future year. Following guidance from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB, 2003) analyses were performed using a 0%, 3%, and 7% discount rate. (Author/publisher)
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