This article discusses the use of a new model developed by the Dutch centre for Transportation Research Training and Consultancy (NEA). This model limits itself to the interregional freight transport in Europe and forecasts the effects of improvements in freight transport logistics for the year 2010 upon: a) operational efficiency and running costs; and b) exhaust emissions and the resulting air pollution, initially for Western Europe. In doing so, the model uses 1986 as the basic year for calculating, for instance, modal split, fuel consumption and exhaust fumes caused by freight transport. The main conclusions are: (1) Despite a considerable increase in European freight transport, measured in ton kilometres, technological improvement can reduce the emission of carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, hydrocarbons and particles; and (2) the effect of both improvements in logistics and of speed reducing measures upon emission rates is limited.
Abstract