This paper models the evolution of long distance traffic in France by 2020 under different hypotheses on GDP growth and transport policies (level of extension of the high speed rail network and of the motorway network, change in gas prices, motorway tolls, rail and air fares). Long distance traffic in France has increased sharply over the last twenty years. Air traffic increased by 200%. Traffic on motorways increased by 150% (not taking into account the transfer of vehicles from the old trunk roads to the motorway network when a new motorway opens up). On the other hand rail traffic increased by 10% only, despite massive investments (1200km of high speed rail track were built). This rapid growth of long distance travel, especially of the modes that pollute most, raises problems as far as the environment, infrastructure congestion and investment costs are concerned. It is thus important to model the evolution of interurban traffic and assess the long term impact of economic growth and transport policies on the national interurban traffic volume and its modal split. To do this, a time series model with data from the last 20 years was developed. The explanatory variables are GDP, the average price per passenger.kilometer for each mode of transport and indicators of accessibility by rail and by motorway. Several indicators for accessibility by rail are modelled thanks to spatial data and then tested. For the covering abstract see ITRD E126595.
Abstract