Abstract
Time series of reliable accident and casualty data are needed to make long term forecasts, together with a method for extrapolating existing trends into the future. The STATS 19 reporting system in the UK provides this data. Chart 2a in this edition of RAGB presents four national time series of road accident data for the period 1949-1992: (a) the number of people killed; (b) the number killed or seriously injured (KSI); (c) the number killed at any severity; and (d) the number of accidents in which someone was injured. It is shown that all four series rose to a peak in the mid 1960's, then declined until about 1980. Since then (a) and (b) have continued to decline, but not the others. This phenomenon is discussed in the article.