Programme 1, 1994/1995, is the first in a series which has its origin in a decision of NRA in 1994 to provide dedicated funding to a low cost road accident remedial measures programme with an initial target spend of one million pounds per annum. Thirty road authorities submitted 128 schemes which were inspected, amended, approved and constructed during the period at a total cost of £1,344,000. Eighty-seven schemes (68%), of total cost £995,000 (74% of funding), were on National Primary Routes. Forty-one schemes (32%), of total cost £349,000 (26% of funding), were on National Secondary Routes. Elementary statistical analysis shows that a reduction of 25 fatal and 41 serious injury accidents was achieved relative to expected numbers. Part of this saving may be accounted for by a "regression to mean" effect and therefore the calculated reduction should be taken as an upper band limit on the number of accidents saved. A statistical test shows that the reductions between the before and after periods in fatal and serious injury accident categories are statistically significant. Of the 73 schemes listed, 42 (58%) are successful schemes, 23 (31%) are moderately successful, 8 (11%) are unsuccessful. For a once off expenditure of a little more than one million pounds, an average annual rate of return of 595% was achieved, compared with a target of 100%. The implication in annual accident costs of Programme 1 is a reduction from £12m. to £6m., arising from a reduction of approximately six fatal accidents and nine serious injury accidents per annum during the after period. (A)
Abstract