The literature indicates that economic factors influence alcoholconsumption and driving behavior. The research questions of this study were: (1) does the state of the economy affect the rate of fatalmotor vehicle crashes involving drinking drivers? And (2) is the relationship between the state of the economy and motor vehicle fatalities mediated by effects of economic conditions on amount of alcoholconsumed and amout of driving? Data were collected on multiple indicators of economic conditions, alcohol consumption, vehicle miles traveled and rates per population of fatal crashes in the united sateson a monthly basis from 1976 through 1985. Nonlinear time-series modeling methods were used to estimate both direct and indirect effects and both coincident and lagged relationships. Results showed that economic conditions significantly influence fatal crash rates both directly and via changes in aggregate amount of alcohol consumed and aggregate amount of driving.
Abstract