This paper summarizes a number of earlier reports that describe models for the developments in both the number of motor vehicle kilometres travelled and in road safety. The way in which traffic and road safety have been developed under the influence of general socio-economic processes is described. The models appear to be flexible enough to describe both the traffic and road safety developments in six countries. These countries are: the former Federal Republic of Germany, Great Britain, Israel, Japan, the United States of America, and the Netherlands. The reason why there was a sudden decrease in the number of fatalities in the seventies, after a continuous upward trend previously, is explained. The models also show a direct relationship between the traffic development and the safety development. It is demonstrated that the model deviations of both developments are also related to each other. Finally, the paper briefly summarizes a theoretical deepening that produces a more general description model for traffic and safety.
Abstract