The manoeuvring models of motorcycles in previous studies often considered motorcycles' travelling in terms of movements in a physical static lane and not in terms of dynamic virtual lane-based movements. For that reason, these models are not able to imitate motorcyclists' behaviour well. This paper proposes a manoeuvrability model framework for motorcycles in queues at signalised intersections with considering the dynamic motorcycle's lane. The model includes (i) a dynamic motorcycle's lane to identify the current, left, and right lanes of the subject motorcycle, (ii) a threshold distance to determine when a motorcyclist starts to consider manoeuvring, (iii) a lane selection model to identify the lane preferred by a motorcyclist, and (iv) a gap acceptance model to describe whether or not the lead and lag gaps are acceptable for manoeuvring. The model framework captures the variation across the motorcyclist population and over time observations. The models were applied to Hanoi and Hochiminh city, Vietnam, based on microscopic data collected from video images. All of the parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with the statistical estimation software GAUSS. The results show that 77.88% of the observed manoeuvres – either staying in the current lane or turning left or right – could be modelled correctly by the proposed models. (Author/publisher)
Abstract