This article describes the possible market segments for electric vehicles and Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV's). It has been concluded that electric vehicles and NGV's are complementary technologies for a cleaner traffic system, namely electric vehicles for road traffic in cities and NGV's for regional road traffic. The possible market share for electric vehicles of the total road traffic in Amsterdam has been calculated. This takes into consideration the limited range of electric vehicles, and is based on an optimistic view of costs and technological progress. A market share of 68% for private electric cars (respectively 72% for vans, 40% for trucks and 80% for buses) by the year 2015 is possible, provided that penetration starts in 1995 and that the maximum penetration is 80%. Introduction of electric vehicles on a large scale would lead to a substantial reduction of air pollution in Amsterdam. At the same time a small reduction of noise pollution would be achieved.
Abstract