Due to the relative scarcity of crashes, there has consistently been a problem with analyses that use crashes as a criterion measure in their analyses. Prior analyses of the relationships between functional capacity measures and at-fault crash involvement for older drivers as reported in the NHTSA Model Driver Screening and Evaluation Program Final Technical Report have been updated to include 1 additional year of driving experience. 18 new at-fault crashes involving drivers with no prior crash involvement were recorded for the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration (MVA) test sample during this interval. The method of odds ratio (OR) calculation was used to examine the relationships between functional status predictors and the most salient among the safety outcome measures identified in the Maryland research. Peak valid OR values for the prior and current analyses were contrasted and the stability of candidate pass-fail cut-points for each predictor relative to values identified in the Final Technical Report was examined. Results indicate that the predictive value of functional tests appears to decrease over time, particularly for the perceptual-cognitive measures. The impact of these findings on programs/policies is to underscore a need for periodic reevaluation, spaced at the shortest practical intervals but not more than 2 years apart, for functional capacity screening to be applied effectively by licensing authorities, health care professionals, and others to reduce personal risk and enhance public safety.
Abstract