Meeting the needs of a changing population : the challenges for the automotive industry.

Population data and forecast trends show that over the next fifty years, the number of people in OECD countries aged over 65 will virtually double from about 86 million to about 175 million. Over the same period the number of people aged over 80 will treble from 16 million to 47 million. This means that the proportion of elderly people in the population will increase from current levels of 15% up to between 20 and 30%. There is also, of course, a strong correlation between age and disability: two thirds of disabled people are elderly. In parallel with these striking demographic trends are also some common social and economic trends which will have a major bearing on the nature and needs of our population. A significant proportion of people who are elderly and disabled will find conventional public transport difficult or impossible to use. Although there are common trends across Europe to improve the accessibility of public transport, it will still, in most cases, be many years before we have a truly accessible public transport system within a barrier free pedestrian environment. Working against this trend, however, land use planning policy in many countries over recent years has led to the relocation of shops, hospitals and other public services and facilities away from residential areas and has increased the isolation of those who do not have access to private cars. For elderly and disabled people in general, fears for personal security are another major factor in determining modal choice and lifestyle. In addition, in many countries older people will have higher incomes, enjoy better health and want to travel more than they do at present. For all these reasons, there will be more older people and more people with disabilities in the market to buy cars and to make use of them both as drivers and as passengers. Their needs are for good design that enables them to manoeuvre easily in and out of a car, for control systems that are light and easy to handle, and, where necessary, easy to modify. They also need advice and, in many cases, assessment or training to enable them to be safe and long term motorists. For the covering abstract see ITRD E116488.