This report describes a model to link national to local traffic forecasts. The model takes into account the empirical relationship between national and local transport developments, as well as mobility effects of the implementation of traffic and transport policy at the local level. Output of the model is the local intensity per road type and per vehicle type. The effects of local implementation of national traffic and transport policy on the local traffic intensities, noise nuisance and air pollution in towns are calculated in this study. The study shows that municipalities do not fully implement the national environment policy. This has led to higher local traffic intensities and slightly higher noise nuisance and air pollution levels. The model has been developed to improve the forecast of local traffic intensities in the so-called National Environmental Outlooks (NEO), which are periodically compiled by the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). An NEO presents the current status of environmental policy, specifically in the Netherlands. It indicates the future environmental quality that is expected to be achieved on the basis of measures announced by the government. Transport and traffic is one of the main sectors in the NEO causing local environmental problems such as noise nuisance and air pollution in towns.
Abstract