This paper presents the new version of the Mobility Explorer (version 5.0). The Mobility Explorer is a strategic, medium term (2 till 15 years) transport forecasting model that can be used on a national and a regional scale in The Netherlands. It is a so-called quick response model. In total twelve main influencing factors have been distinguished which are understood to determine mobility developments. For passenger transport the output is the average daily transport demand of the total Dutch population for the following modes: car driver, car passenger, train, rural transport, urban transport and slow transport. In version 5.0 a new user interface has been developed and the base year is updated towards 1997. A main innovation is that it is now possible to evaluate mobility developments and transport policy on its impact on financial expenditures and income for the central government. Some scenarios about possible developments of the variable car costs are evaluated on their impacts on mobility demand and financial expenditures and income for the central government. It is concluded that even a large increase in the variable car costs do not outweigh the impact of autonomous developments like economic growth and demographic changes. Based on the assumptions used, all scenarios lead to an increase of the positive balance of income and expenditures of the central government. See also C 18852 (ITRD E203879).
Abstract