The information society is approaching. The most important restriction in the forecasts of the information and communication technology (ICT) effects is the lack of integral and consistent future scenarios. Many studies also limit themselves to first-order effects. Because of the difficulties with making reliable forecasts, this study aims to include the `electronic highway' effects in a scenario approach. The integration of the current `state of the art' teleservices into the Scenario Explorer makes it possible to assess all sorts of second-order effects. Telecommuting is used as a case study. It is shown that second-order effects may have a big influence on the forecast. The substitution effect is nearly completely nullified by second-order effects. Recreational and business trips, in particular, increase because of the new highway capacity created by telecommuters. The total effect of telecommuting on the number of trips is a reduction of 1% at most. The effect is considerably higher for commuter trips, of around minus 5%. Telecommuting as a policy tool is therefore probably more successful when used to combat congestion than as a tool to reduce mobility. Another interesting second-order effect is the reduced car ownership growth. The largest effects can be expected in urban areas (Randstad) due to higher congestion levels, a higher education level, and the high share of information oriented employment (in the service sector).
Abstract