La modelisation du trafic consiste a etablir et analyser des relations causales entre les grandeurs physiques du trafic, notamment la relation entre le debit et la vitesse. Les modeles desagreges presentes ici ont pour principes d' analyser le trafic en se focalisant sur un mobile individuel, pour ensuite tirer des conclusions d' ensemble. Le rapport est en trois parties. La premiere, Mesures et constats, donne des rappels d' ingenierie du trafic, ainsi que des modeles probabilistes simples pour representer et agreger des temps de trajet individuels. La deuxieme partie, Modeles, approfondit progressivement la modelisation microscopique du trafic. La troisieme partie, Applications, presente un panorama d' applications, avec en particulier l' estimation statistique de la relation entre debit et trafic. English abstract: The objective of traffic modelling is to derive and to analyze causal relationships between the physical quantities of traffic, such as the relationship between flow and speed. In this report disaggregate models are provided, of which the basic principle is to analyze traffic in two steps: first at the individual level of one vehicle, and second at the aggregate level of a class of individual vehicles. This principle is applied at the following three levels: (1) to analyze the probability to stop, and the stop duration, along an individual path; (2) to model the individual trajectory of a vehicle along its path, with explicit account of local speed variations; (3) to model the microscopic interactions between vehicles, namely overtaking, following-up, passing, and crossing. The resulting disaggregate models have a fairly large scope for application: from speed-flow relationships, to the comparative assessment of the methods for travel-time measurement, passing by the evaluation of transport plans. The report is in three parts. Part I, Measurements and facts, provides an introduction to traffic engineering, along with elementary probabilistic models to represent and aggregate individual travel times. Part II, Models, brings about our disaggregate models in order of increasing depth. Lastly, Part III is devoted to applications, with special emphasis on the statistical estimation of speed-flow relationships. (A)
Abstract