In this paper, we discuss details of developing an optimal zone-based vehicle evacuation strategy based on an optimization-simulation approach. Theoptimal egress strategy is obtained by solving a Universal Quickest Flow (UQF) problem, whereas the solution is implemented and evaluated in a mesoscopic simulation model. Evacuees would follow the optimal routes to the safe locations outside the hot zone and then select a behaviorally realistic route to their final destination. Background traffic is included in the model to improve the realism of traffic condition. The route choice of background traffic due to the evacuation strategy and driver information strategies is carefully addressed. Operational issues like temporal loading intensity and queuing at parking lots are also modeled and discussed. The modeling framework has been applied to a bomb threat scenario at a football stadium. The case study shows that the proposed methods generate reasonable and meaningful results for the intended no-notice scenario.
Abstract