This research report presents the findings of the workshop "Policy evaluation in the future" and a related literature survey. The aim of the workshop was to gain insight into experts' opinions regarding the importance of trends in society in changing transport demand, and the consequences of such developments for information needs and the kind of models that need to be developed. The literature survey concerned different types of models which can be relevant to the field of transport and transportation behaviour of individuals and households. The following model types were considered: (revealed preference) discrte choice models, stated preference and choice models, qualitative models, models for activity scheduling and hazard models. The results of the workshop and the literature survey indicate that a variety of models is required to evaluate future transport policies. The existing set of models used by the Transportation Research Centre represents an adequate tool to predict the likely effects of various future developments. These models can also easily be elaborated to predict the impact of other future developments. Activity-based models are most appropriate to assess the effects of future developments on space-time behaviour of individuals and households, and hence derived transport demand. These models are not part of the current model base, and require a different approach.
Abstract