Within the framework of the COST-programme of the European Commission, a comparative study was carried out into the usefulness of various research methods for describing and explaining developments in traffic and road safety; together with the derived prognoses for future developments. In this report, a brief overview is given of the methods used in various countries. The most important application possibilities of the techniques for research and policy making are also given. They concern the following policy goals: (1) monitoring the traffic and road safety developments; (2) making prognoses of these developments to arrive at realistic task targets; (3) conducting international comparisons of the developments; (4) describing the most important influence factors; (5) giving explanations of the developments; and (6) establishing the influence of policy interventions. Attention is paid to data modelling and the usefulness of statistical methods and techniques for describing and explaining developments. Attention is also paid to the availability and usefulness of data, the demands to be made of them, and the possibilities of using data that does not meet these demands. A number of examples are given of the use of available methods for various application areas. Recommendations are made for further research in the Netherlands, and in particular, those studies that can be conducted within the framework of the SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research research programme.
Abstract