In California there is a growing interest in vehicles powered by electricity or "clean fuels" (methanol, etc.) as a means of improving air quality. Government agencies are considering ways to encourage the use of such vehicles - policies which could range from market incentives to regulatory requirements. In order to predict the relative effectiveness of different policies, it will be necessary to gain a better understanding of the factors which will influence peoples' decisions to purchase such vehicles under different market situations. To that end, the California Energy Commission (CEC) has funded a project to develop a method to predict the market penetration of electric and clean fuel vehicles as a function of their price level and design characteristics. The CEC currently uses a model system to predict vehicle usage and purchase decisions. The major objective for this project was to extend the existing model system to include features which are specific to electric or alternative fuel vehicles. Such features may include limitations on fuel availability, distance travelled before refuelling and engine performance. They may also include the possibility for a single vehicle to switch between gasoline and electricity or an alternative fuel. The initial stages of the project, qualitative group interviews were held to gain a better understanding of the current market perception and attitudes regarding clean fuel vehicles - both in general terms and for specific vehicle attributes. An initial mail out survey was also carried out to get a clearer idea of the segmentation of the market in terms of people's current situation and attitudes. Then, the main survey was carried out across a large sample of households - obtaining both "revealed preference" information on current vehicle ownership and purchase intentions, and "stated preference" information on purchase intentions under hypothetical situations in which electric and/or clean fuel vehicles were presented as being available on the market. The features of these vehicles were customized for each respondent, based on initial information regarding the general class of vehicle they intended to purchase next. For those respondents interested in purchasing vehicles which could switch between gasoline and another power source, a short follow-up survey was sent asking which fuel they would be likely to use in such a vehicle in various situations. The responses from the survey were analyzed and the results were incorporated into models for policy analysis. In the paper we discuss both the study approach and the analysis results.
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