Three weather sensitive multinomial logit models are estimated using the 2001 Transportation Tomorrow Survey in order explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data is restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of alternating between all five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk with change in weather. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. The combined effect of the daily trip rate and mode choice analysis is applied to several climate change scenarios. A 6 degree Celsius increase in temperature can increase cycling trips by 17%, and reduce auto-passenger trips by 7%. A 20% increase or decrease in precipitation, however, is found to have much smaller impacts on all modes. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels. (Author/publisher)
Abstract