In this paper the focus is on the impacts that transport supply has on the distribution of urban activity locations (e.g. residents, services, commerce, etc) and, consequentially, on travel demand (e.g. spatial distribution, modal split and so on). The analysis is carried on by means of models dealing with the complex interactions between transportation and urban activities. With respect to other models present in literature, what actually is pointed out in the proposed modelling approach is the transport component. The latter is typically represented in terms of generalised transportation cost, while here it is explicitly represented by means of demand models and transportation networks. Individual choices of residential and activity location are simulated through Random Utility Theory. The interaction between different individuals (i.e. residents, firms, etc) is simulated through a static (or equilibrium) approach. The latter seems more suitable for practical applications since equilibrium models are easier to be calibrated and implemented, with respect to more complex dynamic modelling framework (Simmonds, 2000). In order to provide the context, a review of studies on the impact of transport on land-use is described in section 2. Section 3 and 4 deal with the adopted modelling framework and its applications to the urban area of Rome (Italy) in order to predict the land use and the travel demand long-term variations induced by changes in transport supply system. The results of such applications are discussed and compared with those carried out by means of traditional four-stages demand model calibrated on the same urban area. Conclusions and further research issue are dealt with in section 5.
Abstract