The forecasting model used for applying for funding for the Northern Busway in Auckland is based on generalised cost, which takes into consideration only monetary cost and time, to forecast the travel demand. The purpose of this study is not to re-forecast the usage of the North Shore Busway but to illustrate how a different approach can be applied to produce more accurate forecasts for similar kind of projects in the future. In this research, a discrete choice model is used which allows the travel demand model to incorporate these immeasurable factors on a disaggregate basis. Data collection procedure and instruments were designed to obtain both revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data. The data was then used to estimate the RP and SP models using maximum likelihood In conclusion, it appeared that trip chaining activity is a significant factor encouraging travellers to use private vehicles, while qualitative reasons such as convenience and comfort are the main factors encouraging travellers to use public transport. This is because their existence causes travellers perception of the importance of other factors, such as cost and time, to reduce. It is important that SP experiments are designed to simulate the actual decision process as much as possible to avoid bias in the results. (a).
Abstract