MODUM (Modell Umwelt Mobilität – Environment - Mobility Model) seeks to illustrate the impact of transport system interventions, showing the medium and long-term effects, as well as the results of self-enforcing and self-regulating processes. A so-called Actor Platform - including representatives from transport associations, the administration, and transport providers - developed so-called ‘mental models’ that were subsequently implemented in a system dynamic model (Stella software). Three scenarios were designed to illustrate the situation for passenger transport: ‘BAU’ (Business As Usual), ‘Free-flowing Traffic’, and ‘Demand Management’. The latter shows the most favourable effects with regard to environmental and economic indicators. A separate model was designed for analysing the goods traffic situation. A special problem originates from the requirement to combine qualitative and technical-quantitative models together. The results have shown that, given the requirement, it is difficult to bring together "hard" prognosis intentions with "soft" inputs for application as a "Learning Tool". However, the model may contribute to the development of strategies by the group involved. (A)
Abstract