Monitor Policy Stimulus Road Safety 2015 : research justification. The Policy Stimulus Road Safety 2012 contains 23 extra measures that the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment and its administrative and social partners want to take together to reduce the number of serious road injuries. This monitor presents the developments concerning the numbers of casualties, exposure and risk, discusses the progress of the implementation and, where possible, discusses the effects of the additional measures. This report serves as a background report to the brief version R-2015-20, in which the main findings are summarized. The developments in numbers of casualties are considered for both the long and the short term: ? The long-term development; this indicator is the trend over the period 2005-2014, expressed in an average relative change per year. ? The short-term development; this indicator is the comparison of the number of casualties in the previous year (in this case 2014) with the average of the three preceding years (2011-2013). As in 2013, there were 570 road fatalities in 2014. The number of serious road injuries rose to 20,700. The number of road fatalities decreased by 9% compared with the average over the previous three years and shows an average decline of 4.2% per year during the period 2005-2014. After the number of fatalities among motorcyclists in 2013 being half that of the average in the years 2010-2012, their number in 2014 has once more increased to reach the earlier level. Over the longer term, the number of serious road injuries shows an average increase of 2.9% per year. Over the short term the increase is 7.1%. More than half the serious road injuries are bicycle casualties in crashes not involving motorized vehicles. The proportion in the total number of road crash casualties in the National Basic Registration Hospital Care (LZB) is increasing for this group. This is also the case for the proportion of casualties in the age group of 60 years and older. The proportion of seriously injured cyclists in crashes involving motor vehicles traffic also seems to have increased in recent years, from 8% in 2010 to more than 11% in 2014. Since the mobility did not show a clear rise or decline during the last decade, the risk shows a development similar to that of the number of casualties. Therefore, changes in the number of casualties cannot simply be attributed to changes in the mobility. The Policy Stimulus Road Safety correctly identifies cyclists and the over- 60s as target groups. For these two groups the number of fatalities did not show a declining trend during the past ten years. In addition, the proportion of serious road injuries that is registered in the LZB increased for both groups. The relatively unfavourable development in the number of casualties among decline during the last ten years, from 11.5 fatalities per billion km travelled in 2005 to 8.7 fatalities in 2014. Another mobility development is the rise of the electric bike, which is increasingly used by older cyclists in particular. The risk of an injury crash (A&E treatment) is higher on an electric bicycle than on a regular bike. Other groups for which the number of road fatalities seems to develop less favourably are: ? mobility scooters, microcars and other vehicles for the disabled; ? 60 km/hour-roads. We recommend stricter monitoring for these groups and to formulate additional measures if necessary. The most important measure in the Policy Stimulus concerning cycling is the Local approach safe cycling. In 2014, the response to the survey in which municipalities can indicate how they proceed with this local approach was 74% (n = 298). In 2013, this was 72% (n = 289). The response rate has no longer shown a considerable increase since the strong rise in 2013 compared to 2012 when the response rate was 29%. About 40% of the municipalities (125 of the 298) that completed the survey in the web tool 'Safe cycling ' of the Dutch Cycling Embassy, have a local approach to safe cycling ready; 68% of the municipalities are known to have already started the Local approach safe cycling (August 2015)or will start soon. The share was 65% in 2014. The measures in the Policy Stimulus directed at the elderly are carried out in the framework of the programme Stay Mobile Safely (BVM) and are aimed at promoting safe mobility of the elderly. The programme will run until the end of 2015. In 2014-2015, the focus was on the pedestrian older than 60 and on a senior-friendly living environment. The other measures from the Policy Stimulus were largely completed in 2014. These measures are: ? the CROW-publication Basic characteristics intersections and roundabouts; ? Start of Safer 3; ? Triptych Safe Traffic: Safe Traffic Registration Centre — Safe Neighbourhood Actions —Neighbourhood label Safe Traffic; ? Signing of the STAR Safety Deal with the aim to improve the accident registration. It is now important to make the step to carrying out effect measurements to determine to what extent these measures contribute to road safety improvement. In 2014, additional road safety measures were taken outside the Policy Stimulus. For example, legislative changes have occurred (e.g. the introduction of the recidivism regulation multiple offenders and the suspension of the alcolock program). Furthermore, different road authorities have taken infrastructural measures to increase the safety of their roads. In the field of education and information a process was started to improve traffic education in schools. And finally, the accompanied driving trial 2toDrive was continued and will run until 31-10-2017. It has been decided to enshrine accompanied driving in the law per 1 November 2017. In her 2014 letter to Dutch Parliament on the subject of serious road injuries, the Minister indicated that she is investigating a risk-based approach as a new basis for taking measures. SWOV is in favour of such an approach. Using such an approach, however, requires data on the safety of infrastructure and the behaviour of road users. In brief, the Policy Stimulus Policy Stimulus seems to have been a good step, but the permanent change for the better has not yet been deployed, especially concerning the number of serious road injuries. What is needed now is not only a plan with accompanying measures, but also to generate attention for the implementation of the measures. When the measures we already know to be effective have found their way to the street, substantial steps may be taken towards a decrease in the number of serious road injuries and a further decline in the number of fatalities.
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