Abstract
Demographic phenomena (urban sprawl, ageing of population, ...) have a major influence on long term evolution of transport behaviour in urban areas. Motorisation is the first factor to take into account, because of its structuring effect on mode choice and mobility level. The other key-factors are dwelling area, gender, life cycle, and generation effect. Mobility is quantified not only as usual by number of trips, but also by passenger-kilometer or vehicle-km, which is important for environmental applications. This analysis leads to long term forecasts. (A)