Motorization, i.e., the substitution of automobiles and trucks for non-motorized travel modes, has previously been examined at national and regional levels. Previous studies indicate that, at the national level, income (GDP per capita) typically explains more than 90 percent of the variation inmotorization levels. In terms of the transition of travel modes, some past studies explain part of this phenomenon; however, a comprehensive reviewis rarely conducted. In this paper, motorization is examined as individual and household phenomena. At the personal level, motorization occurs through a series of transitions, stereotypically from non-motorized to motorized, from shared to privately owned, from low to high cost. Results of a survey of Shanghai residents in mid-2006 illustrate these personal transitions, or "motorization pathways". Based on the survey, motorization pathways in Shanghai are diverse (331 distinct pathways across 992 respondents) and complicated (more than 50 percent of respondents have pathways with more than three stages). Only about half of people come to their current motorization stage by following a hypothesized motorization direction. This paper indicates that there is no common path towards private automobile ownership in Shanghai. At least at present, Shanghai residents appear to make a transition away from more "modern" modes of mobility nearly as often they transition towards them. This implies that not only is widespread use ofprivate cars not inevitable, but that there are many stages in peoples' motorization path where government policies could be used to affect mobility as to guide Shanghai to a more sustainable future.
Abstract