This paper presents a set of national traffic forecasts for Great Britain. The forecasts are for: (1) car traffic on three different types of road; and (2) traffic on six public transport modes. The forecasting methods were developed as part of a study, that aims to assess the sensitivity of fuel consumption and `greenhouse gas' emissions in the transport sector to changes in prices, including the price of fuel and public transport fares. The car model used is disaggregated by age and type of vehicle, and also by type of road. For the car traffic forecasting model, cross-elasticities of demand are required between six public transport prices and car use. For the public transport demand model, cross-elasticities of demand are needed between petrol prices and demand for each public transport sector. The car model produces forcasts of car vehicle kms in Great Britain, which are calculated by combining forecasts of annual car ownership with forecasts of annual distance travelled, based on gross domestic product and various prices. The public transport passenger travel forecasts are based on single constant elasticity equations for each of the six public transport modes. Some traffic forecasts from the models up to the year 2025 are included.
Abstract