Municipal pavement performance prediction based on pavement condition data.

One method municipalities have been using to prioritize and justify expenditures is regular road surface condition ratings that are summarized using an index value such as, pavement condition index (PCI), distress manifestation index (DMI), or similar. In the absence of other overriding factors such as level of service improvements (widening, etc) or underground utility maintenance/rehabilitation, road surface condition ratings can be successfully used to program short term road needs. In conjunction with construction history information, the road surface condition ratings can be used to generate pavement performance prediction models for each pavement surface and construction type. Although pavement prediction models generated in this manner are purely empirical, the technology is relatively simple and allows for longer term forecasting of reconstruction and rehabilitation needs. This paper provides an overview of the pavement management process and presents a relatively simple methodology for developing pavement prediction models using existing inventory and condition data available to most municipalities. For the covering abstract of this conference see ITRD number E211426.