The objective of the research reported in this paper is to establish the mode choice determinants in intercity home-to-work trips. The Dutch Mobility Panel is used including only people that moved homes or changed work locations. Despite changes in the ratios of travel times between modes, mode choices were very stable. The major explanation for this stability is that only 30% of all people making intercity work trips had a realistic option to change modes. The analysis includes not only conventional means to establish such "captive users" based upon both observed variables and non-observed variables. These results imply that only a limited number of commuters may change mode after improvement of the competitive position of public transport. These results explain the low elasticities obtained with current models. However, these elasticities are much higher for people with real choice alternatives.
Abstract