A new time series analysis model has been developed for the benefit of both the SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research annual analyses and the Policy Information System for Road Safety (BIS-V). This paper gives an account of the development of this model. This model is based on the linking of the short-term descriptions and prognoses of the National Travel Survey (OVG)/Traffic Accident Registration (VOR) data to the SWOV macro model's long-term description and prognosis. The paper discusses how mobility data disaggregated by transport mode and age group are modelled in order to come to prognoses. The paper also describes how the risk and traffic victim prognoses are obtained for the specific age and transport mode categories. The most important conclusion is that the model is not finished yet.
Abstract