In this article an analysis is made of the `rise and fall' of transport systems in the Netherlands, and of the lessons that can be learnt from the past. The article is limited to transport by land and by inland waterways.The five questions dealt with are: (1) What conditions give rise to the development of new transport systems?; (2) What are the factors that cause obsolete transport systems to be ousted from the market and replaced by modern systems?; (3) How does the transition process actually take place?; (4) Might it be possible to predict major transport system changes at an early stage?; and (5) what kind of transport system developments might be envisaged for the future? A brief analysis is given of the possible role of the Dutch government when it comes to the matter of facilitating transition processes. Finally, the prospect of seven new transport systems, two of which are `Automated Highway' and `People Mover', becoming predominant in the future are briefly analysed.
Abstract