The Metro City Ring project is the 4th phase of the expanding metro network in the Danish capital, and is expected to become operational in 2015. The metros phase 1 was opened in 2002, phase 2 in 2003, and the 3rd phase will be opened in autumn 2007. The operational traffic model for the capital, the OTM model, was updated over the last two years specifically for the purpose of the Metro City Ring project. The efforts were concentrated on the data part of the model where new 2004 base matrices were built. In addition, the demand model components have been re-estimated, combing values-of-time (VOT) derived from a large Stated Preference survey (based on the newly completed data for the Danish national VOT project) with Revealed Preference data collected across the Greater Copenhagen Area. The aim of the paper is twofold. Firstly, the structure of the new OTM demand model is depicted and secondly, the demand forecasts produced by the model for the Metro City Ring project are presented. The OTM model system predicts demand for transport across the Greater Copenhagen Area. Forecasts of demand are made separately for seven passenger purposes. In application, the predictions from the home-based business and non-home-based business models are aggregated into a single business purpose prior to assignment. The OTM consists of separate model components by purpose for travel frequency (generation) at the all-day level, and models of simultaneous mode and destination choice. The modes in the model are car driver, car passenger, public transport, bike and walk. Three tree structures were tested to determine the relative sensitivities of the mode and destination choice decisions: mode and destination choice in parallel, mode choice under destination choice and destination choice under mode choice. A key feature of the model is that the VOT are income dependent, which allows the demand models in the model system to reflect variations in cost sensitivity with income. The model base travel matrices reflect conditions on an average weekday in 2004. Once the model has been estimated synthetic 2004 travel matrices are produced. A pivoting procedure is used then to combine information from the base matrices with the changes in synthetic demand between the base and forecast years. Prior to assignment, the model predictions are split between seven model time-periods distinguished in the assignment by using fixed factors. When completed, the Metro City Ring alignment will be 15 km long including 17 underground stations. The total travel time, including time spent at stations, will be 23 min. Approximately 180.000 people and 190.000 working/education places will be on a walk distance to one of the Metro City Ring stations. In 2015, when it is expected that the new metro infrastructure is finished, some 85% of all dwellings and working/education places in the city will be within a 600 m radius of the metro and S-train network. In the peak periods, the Metro City Ring is forecast to carry 5.500 passengers per hour per direction. With the 100 s headway in the peak periods, the maximum capacity is 10.800 passengers per hour per direction, i.e. approximately the double of what is needed. Model forecasts with the new OTM will be carried out during spring 2007 where different alignment possibilities will be tested. Prior to model forecasts the model was validated by comparing the calculated and observed traffic flows in the base 2004 year. For the covering abstract see ITRD E137145. For the covering abstract see ITRD E137145.
Abstract