The authors have conducted research to estimate how much people will travel in the future, which transport modes they will use, and where traffic will be most intense. They have tried to answer these questions for the world as a whole and for 11 specific regions. They compiled historical statistics for trains, buses, cars, and high-speed transport (air and rail combined), and used that database to construct a scenario for the future volume of passenger transport and the relative prevalence of different modes up to 2050. One finding is that as their wealth increases, people everywhere travel further and faster, thus bringing a change in the dominant transport technologies. In the absence of major economic disturbances, traffic volume should continue to rise with income. Developing countries will have a rising share of global traffic, though less mobility per head than developed countries. Higher incomes will mean higher speeds, in a wide range of economic and social settings. In different parts of the world, a person typically spends 1.0 to 1.5 hours in travel, and travels faster as his income rises. World travel per year, in traffic-km, will continue to rise rapidly, with higher-speed transport gaining market share, but cars and buses continuing to be important in developed and developing countries, respectively. For the covering abstract, see IRRD 896880.
Abstract