This paper describes the results of a thinking experiment on the future of passenger transport. Current trends show that the system is running out of control, while at the same time transport policies seem to be ineffective. The central questions to be answered therefore are: (i) how does it come that objectives at the national level are often not followed up by measures at the regional level; and (ii) which solutions are available for influencing passenger transport towards the desired direction? The first question is answered by applying an analysis of the policy process in transport. Both policymaking at the national level and the follow-up by regional policies are discussed. It is shown that this process is ineffective, so that it is not likely that the objectives are achieved. Next, an assessment is made of possible solutions by developing two extreme scenarios: 'influencing by the government', and 'influencing by the market'. Both scenarios may result in the achievement of most general objectives. It is possible to destillate new policy directions so that the problems in transport may be solved. (A)
Abstract