Abstract
Traffic accidents are not a product of motorization, for people were losing their lives in traffic accidents even before the invention of the motor vehicle. The number of deaths increased, parallel to spreading motorization until about 1970 and then fell in the following years in spite of further growth in motorization. To account for this development, an explanatory model with the determinants "exposure" and "risk", which should help us assess future trends is evolved. An opponent remark is presented by P.H.Polak.