The achievement of a significant modal shift from private transport to public transport requires an understanding of the policies and key factors that influence travel demand. Progress can then be made towards a planning and policy environment that would encourage more use of public transport. This paper aims to identify the factors that influence modal shares, with a view to formulating a strategy; it focuses on London, but also makes comparisons with other urban areas in the UK. It concentrates on the first stage in planning modal shift. It first discusses aspects of public transport in London, including the use of bus and rail services, travel to work data, fares, subsidies, and operating costs. It then assesses the key drivers of public transport demand: wealth, the labour market, population, and car ownership and costs. Except in London, demand for UK bus services has declined for many years, but demands for journeys to work by rail and underground have been fairly steady. The use of cars for travel to work has risen in all areas, and is nearly 50% inside London and about 70% outside London. Differences in patterns of demand for public transport inside and outside London reveal potentially useful lessons about regulatory stability, London's Travelcard, land use, and discouragement of car use.
Abstract