This paper presents a study of the perspectives of the European motorway network up to the year 2010. The study's primary objective is to identify what type of motorway network would best serve the long-term mutual interests of European Community (EC) member states and of regions within the larger EC states. It also considers six other dimensions related to motorways. The paper considers mainly methodological considerations and traffic simulation results. The three fundamental stages of the method analyse: (1) road transport demand; (2) the high capacity road network (supply); (3) the translation of this demand in terms of traffic (matching of supply and demand). For the demand analysis, priority is given to international trips by road, using a regional breakdown into 129 cells distinguishing passengers and freight. The origin-destination matrix is generated by a gravity model, for passengers, and compiled from available data, for freight. Networks considered include the long-term network resulting by realising national motorway master plans for various EC states. Scenarios for the year 2010 are designed by combining two economic growth contexts, and three levels for the increase in national traffic and modal substitution. Even for slow economic growth, the scenario results show 90% average increase in total traffic on the trunk road network.
Abstract