The rate at which fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) might displace the conventional fleet is examined under constraints imposed by the limited availability of platinum. It concludes that a transition period as short as 31 years is not feasible. Under the most favorable circumstances, a complete transition of the US fleet to this new technology would require about 66 years and 10,800 net tonnes of platinum. Platinum demand for the US auto industry alone would amount to 48% of world production during much of that transition period. The effect of that demand on the price of platinum would add to the problem of reducing vehicle cost to a competitive range. If US platinum consumption were to remain at its current level of 16% of annual world production, fleet conversion would require 146 years. These results imply that, without alternative catalysts, fuel cells alone cannot adequately address the issues facing the current system of road transport. (Author/publisher).
Abstract