Vehicles with more than one traffic violation annually are known to be more than proportionally involved in road crashes. It is known that crash frequency increases with the square of the violation frequency approximately. In this paper the possible effects of a progressive fine level is researched. The assessment is based on the known distribution of the number of vehicles as a function of their annual violation frequency and their crash rate, for the current situation with a fine level that does not depend on previous traffic violation behaviour. Then several progressive fining schemes are proposed, of which the effects on road safety are estimated. The calculation assumes that drivers adjust their driving behaviour in order to keep the total annual amount of fines constant. It is shown how this (expected) effect improves with more strict progressive fining schemes. Several expected difficulties with the actual implementation of such a scheme are discussed. (Author/publisher)
Abstract