This report describes the methods that have been used to forecast in some detail the number of fatal and serious casualties on British roads in 2020 and 2030. These forecasts will help to provide the numerical context when the Government sets the next round of casualty reduction targets. Statistical models are fitted to past casualty and exposure data, taking account, as far as possible, of road safety measures that have been introduced. The models demonstrate sufficient consistency to be used to forecast casualty rates, which are then combined with predictions about the distances travelled in future to produce casualty forecasts. These forecasts assume that current road safety activities will continue to be undertaken in coming years, but that no new measures will be introduced. Consequently, they provide the basis for the final stage of forecasting in which the assumed effects of new measures can be taken into account. The improvement of car secondary safety over the past 15 years has probably been the development that has had the most significant effect on the national casualty total. A statistical model is used to quantify this effect by analysis of accident data. The results of the most recent analyses are presented, and used to estimate the future benefits. (Author/publisher)
Abstract