Calibration and validation of traffic simulation models are critical procedures in ensuring that developed models accurately represent real world conditions. When simulations of planned, future systems are created, validation is not possible since field data cannot be collected for a system that has not yet been built. Instead modelers have no choice but to follow standard calibration procedures, and in the absence of validating data, accept a model that appears to function correctly. Post-evaluation of traffic simulation models is a neglected yet valuable area of research, since it offers modelers a chance to validate their future system simulations with field data. This paper will focus on investigating the calibration assumptions used by modelers of future systems by checking whether improvised calibrations hold up to post-evaluation. A case study is conducted directed atmeasuring changes to user behavior in an existing and reconstructed traffic system. Finally the benefits of post-evaluation and methods to improve calibration and validation of future models will be discussed.
Abstract