Predicting cycling accident risk in Brussels : a spatial case–control approach.

Author(s)
Vandenbulcke, G. Thomas, I. & Int Panis, L.
Year
Abstract

This paper aims at predicting cycling accident risk for an entire network and identifying how road infrastructure influences cycling safety in the Brussels-Capital Region (Belgium). A spatial Bayesian modelling approach is proposed using a binary dependent variable (accident, no accident at location i) constructed from a case–control strategy. Control sites are sampled along the ‘bikeable’ road network in function of the potential bicycle traffic transiting in each ward. Risk factors are limited to infrastructure, traffic and environmental characteristics. Results suggest that a high risk is statistically associated with the presence of on-road tram tracks, bridges without cycling facility, complex intersections, proximity to shopping centres or garages, and busy van and truck traffic. Cycle facilities built at intersections and parked vehicles located next to separated cycle facilities are also associated with an increased risk, whereas contraflow cycling is associated with a reduced risk. The cycling accident risk is far from being negligible in points where there is actually no reported cycling accident but where they are yet expected to occur. Hence, mapping predicted accident risks provides planners and policy makers with a useful tool for accurately locating places with a high potential risk even before accidents actually happen. This also provides comprehensible information for orienting cyclists to the safest routes in Brussels. (Author/publisher)

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Publication

Library number
20210431 ST [electronic version only]
Source

Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 62 (January 2014), p. 341-357, ref.

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This publication is one of our other publications, and part of our extensive collection of road safety literature, that also includes the SWOV publications.