THE PREDICTION OF CAR OWNERSHIP AND USE REVISITED.

THIS PAPER SUMMARISES DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF CAR OWNERSHIP AND USE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND PRESENTS AN APPROACH TO THEIR LONG-TERM FORECASTING RELATED TO THE THEORY OF KONDRATIEV CYCLES ('ECONOMIC LONG WAVES'). MUCH MORE DETAILED MODELS, LIKE THE AUTHOR'S CARO MODEL, ARE REQUIRED TO ESTIMATE SHORT-TERM CHANGES. DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE ECONOMIC UNDERSTANDING OF FORECASTING CAR OWNERSHIP AND USE DURING THE LAST 20 YEARS, THE CURRENT UK GOVERNMENT LONG-RANGE FORECASTS OF CAR OWNERSHIP HAVE REVERTED TO ESSENTIALLY TIME-TREND FORECASTING, PREDICTING SATURATION LEVELS OF CAR OWNERSHIP THAT THE AUTHOR CONSIDERS MUCH TOO LOW; HE SUGGESTS A SATURATION OF 0.90 CARS PER HEAD. HE PREDICTS THAT MODERM ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY MAKES POSSIBLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLETELY AUTOMATIC PERSONAL TRANSPORT UNITS, WHICH WILL ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR MANUAL DRIVING AND THUS MAKE CAR USE POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE TO THE WHOLE MOBILE POPULATION. NEVERTHELESS, THIS EXPANSION OF CAR OWNERSHIP MAY WELL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REDUCTION IN USE PER CAR, BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE FUTURE POLICY SHIFT TOWARDS PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND BECAUSE OF IMPROVED LONG-DISTANCE RAIL TRANSPORT. THE AUTHOR CONSIDERS THAT REASONABLE PREDICTIONS OF THE LONG-TERM CHANGES IN TRAVEL, THAT THE NEXT KONDRATIEV CYCLE WILL BRING, CAN BE MADE ONLY BY DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EXPENDITURE DATA, SUCH AS THOSE OF THE FAMILY EXPENDITURE SURVEY, AND TIME DATA, SUCH AS THOSE OF THE NATIONAL TRAVEL SURVEY.