An on-going system of data gathering and analysis to monitor and evaluate countermeasures was established during 1995. The data collected by the system, including number of random breath tests, number of speed related traffic infringement notices, television publicity levels associated with various themes (for example, drink driving, speed, concentration, fatigue, seat belts), unemployment rates, weather data, alcohol sales and fuel sales, was used to review the apparent reduction in fatal and serious casualty crashes that occurred in Victoria during late 1996 and early 1997. A reduction in fatal crashes occurred in Victoria during September 1996 to June 1997, with the reduction being primarily in rural areas. A reduction in the number of vehicle kilometres travelled in Victoria was found for July 1996-June 1997. In addition to the decreased vehicle travel and decreased crash rates, a substantial reduction in rainfall was found for both Melbourne and country Victoria during September 1996-June 1997 when compared to the same period a year earlier. There was also a small increase in average daily sunshine hours during September 1996-March 1997, with the increase being greater in rural areas than in Melbourne. These changes may also have contributed to the crash reductions. In view of the exploratory nature of this preliminary study, further research involving statistical modelling as well as the collection and analysis of a further six months crash and explanatory data for the period July-December 1997 is needed to determine the contribution and significance of the above factors in the reduction in crashes that occurred during late 1996 and early 1997. (A)
Abstract