The problem of causal ordering : a preliminary examination into the stability of perceptual deterrence for a group of recidivist drink drivers.

This paper reports on an examination into the stability of a group of repeat offenders’ perceptions of legal sanctions and their corresponding drink driving behaviours over time. The analysis indicated that perceptions of arrest certainty and swiftness of penalties appear to diminish, but perceptual severity remains stable while offenders were on a probation order. Although perceptions of deterrence appear to fluctuate, examination of offenders’ drink driving behaviours remain much more stable over longer periods of time. The findings of the study provide support for the assertion that perceptions of risk apprehension change over time and may be found to be influenced by offending behaviours e.g., “experiential effect”. The findings have direct implications for the development of effective drink driving countermeasures that attempt to combat habitual and/or resistant behaviour(s). (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E214057. Printed volume contains peer-reviewed papers. CD-ROM contains submitted papers.83