According to a forecast by the federal highways institute it is expected that although the number of fatalities from traffic accidents is likely to remain almost the same, the number of accidents with personal injuries is likely to rise by 6% in 1977 compared to 1976; the increase in the number of accidents with severe damage is likely to be about 20%. It is established that there will be an increase in the frequency of personal injury accidents where motor vehicles (excluding motorised two-wheelers), mopeds and cyclists are involved; motor-cyclists and scooters will have about the same number as in the previous year, whilst pedestrians, particularly out of towns, will be less frequently involved. More fatalities are to be expected amongst drivers and passengers of motor vehicles (excepting motorised two-wheelers) particularly in inner urban areas, amongst motor-cyclists and scooter drivers in inner urban areas and amongst moped riders, whilst amongst pedal cyclists and pedestrians there will probably be fewer fatalities. Against a background of increasing traffic flows (overall about +2%, motorways about +10%) one can generally forecast that the risk of a fatal accident is probably slightly less; that the risk of an injury accident is, with the exception of motorways (here no increase is expected) slightly greater, whilst the risk of an accident with heavy damage has distinctly increased.
Abstract